Why the downtown core is retail's strongest bet right now

For a decade the smart money chased suburban grocery anchors. This year, the best risk-adjusted retail deals we underwrite are back in the downtown core — and the reasons are structural, not cyclical.

Rooftops beat commutes

Downtown residential populations have doubled in many cores since 2015, and those residents spend seven days a week — not five. A corner with 20,000 nearby residents and modest office traffic now outperforms a commuter corridor with twice the car count but no evening trade.

The experience premium

Food halls, flagship fitness, medical and service retail — categories that cannot be delivered in a box — cluster where foot traffic is densest. They sign longer, invest more in fit-out, and draw the secondary tenants that fill the rest of the block.

Rents with headroom

Prime core rents still sit 10–15% below their 2019 peaks in most of our markets, while suburban anchor boxes have fully recovered. That gap is the opportunity: buy or lease the improving corridor before the recovery prices it away.

What to watch out for

Not every downtown block qualifies. Underwrite evening and weekend footfall specifically, confirm the parking and loading story for your use, and walk the block after 8pm — the spreadsheet never tells you about the dark stretch between the anchors.